Europe is entering a period of “forced multipolarity,” where strategic choices are narrowing and costs are rising. Three broad paths are emerging:
✓ Strategic Alignment with the U.S.
Guarantees defense under NATO and secures access to North American markets. However, it compromises Europe’s strategic autonomy and leaves it vulnerable to U.S. domestic political volatility.
✓ Hedging and Strategic Autonomy
Involves tailored agreements with both the U.S. and China while preserving technological sovereignty. Yet, this strategy risks Europe being squeezed between rival powers and suffering from high internal fragmentation costs.
✓ Deep Regionalization (“Fortress Europe”)
Seeks to build economic and technological resilience and promote the Euro as a partial reserve currency. This inward turn, however, would shrink Europe’s global influence and exacerbate internal tensions, fueling populist backlash.



